The Grind vs. The $1.8 Trillion Wall
There is a misconception that real estate is a “passive” game. We are sold the dream of sitting back and collecting checks while the market does the heavy lifting.
But in 2025, the investors who relied on the market to do the work for them are in trouble. The era of “lazy capital” is over, and the era of the operator is back.
The “Easy Money” Crash Between 2020 and 2022, too many investors got comfortable. They bought properties with short-term bridge debt, assuming low interest rates were a permanent law of nature. They didn’t hustle to create forced appreciation; they leveraged cheap debt to fake it.
Now, those bills are coming due.
We are staring down a $1.8 Trillion commercial real estate “Maturity Wall” by 2026. These loans are expiring, and the owners can’t refinance. Their properties are worth less than they were three years ago, and rates have doubled.
Why Hustle is the New Equity This is where the separation happens. While the passive investors are paralyzed by negative leverage, the real operators are engaging. You actually have to WORK the deals in order to generate the return.
The Opportunity: Thousands of owners are holding assets they can no longer afford. They don’t need a “market price” offer; they need a solution to a debt problem that is about to drown them.
The Work: These deals aren’t just sitting there waiting to be picked up effortlessly. You have to make offers, often below what the sellers paid in 2020-2022. Then you have to have the capital to close & complete improvements.
As value add investors, we buy “as-is” because we aren’t afraid of the mess. We aren’t afraid of the work required to stabilize a property that a “lazy” landlord let slide. Plus we have the cash necessary to do the work.
The Maturity Wall is scary for the passive investor. But for us? It’s the greatest buying opportunity of the decade—if you’re willing to put in the work.
Have a Value Add Deal For Sale? Here’s our Buy Box:
- Industrial & Commercial Property, 10K sq. ft. – 250K sq. ft.
- Mobile Home Communities (50 pad minimum)
- Well located Retail Development Sites
- Residential MFR & SFR
- Ideally long term rented asset with below market rents
Recent Portfolio Exit Volume
- 2021 $54,615,000
- 2022 $54,547,000
- 2023 $57,489,000
- 2024 $52,164,000
- 2025 YTD $54,246,000