Delusional Optimism
Last week I wrote an article titled “How to Turn $100K into $3.2M. It was an example of the power of compounding and there wasn’t a single catch-THERE WERE TWO! First, you had to patiently live, wait, & invest over the 25 year time period. Second, each of the 5 year deals had to successfully double your money each time. To be honest, this is probably Delusional Optimism…let me explain.
Delusional Optimism is different than Realistic Optimism. And also different from evaluating Risk (pessimism, if things go wrong). All are critical to successful investing. Delusional Optimism is counting the “Luck factor” in a deal. You can count on it, you shouldn’t expect it, but you should be aware of it going into a deal. If there is none, is the risk still worth it?? Maybe-but this is deal dependent.
Before I make an investment, I ask myself, “If things go well, and we get lucky, how much upside might be in this deal?” Delusional-because I cannot get lucky every time. But if I’m risking my money, I need to see some “luck” if I’m going to take the risk. I do every deal “hoping” for a superior outcome. Here’s an example:
My First Passive Syndication Deal – Las Vegas
My “Delusional Optimism” as a Passive Investor
The first time I invested passively in a syndication, my Las Vegas Shopping center, (currently listed at $17.9M) there were 3 major moments of commitment. These were heavy moments, as I decided to move forward at each step.
- I had to say out loud, “I’ll do it, I’ll invest my money.”
- I had to then sign the subscription docs. I remember having second thoughts at this moment. Should I sign? Should I do this deal? Is this the right thing to do? I decided, yes, it was, and I signed the docs.
- Wiring the money was the biggest & final step. I had some hesitation here too, but after just a moment, I sent the money.
That was it. That was all the work I did on my 1st syndication deal. No more emails, no phone calls, no decisions, & no further checks out of my pocket. It was quiet for about 14 months, receiving only my quarterly updates. Now that the distributions have started, I’m glad I made the deal. But this is still reasonably good, not yet hitting the level of my Delusional Optimism.
My Delusional Optimism – Getting Lucky in Las Vegas
My realistic optimism on the Las Vegas Shopping center deal is that I receive my money back and maybe 8%-12% IRR. My Delusional Optimism is that we get lucky, sell the deal around that $17M+ listing price, and my passive investment will generate about 1.8X the initial amount-in less than 3 years, or a 26% IRR.
Delusional Optimism – Flipping a Single Family House
You build a fix & flip deal on a $40K profit spread. You hit the Spring market perfectly at about March 17 and you get 3 offers in the first 3 days. (Right now would the perfect time to buy that flip for the Spring Exit) You call highest & best and the resulting contract & closing nets a $65K profit. That $25K is the result of luck. If this were evaluated on the way into the deal, the $25K represents my Delusional Optimism in the deal. I’m hoping for this every time. I’m counting on the $40K-Reasonable Optimism.
Underwriting Deals with Delusional Optimism
I NEVER write down the Delusional Optimism expectations-it’s only in my head. It is important to never build a deal solely on Delusional Optimism. Far better to be conservative and create deal structures and forecasts on realistic optimism with a careful eye on the risks of a deal.
My final takeaway here is to do deals with 2 levels of Optimism & one level of Pessimism. Reasonable optimism that you’ll hit an acceptable profit target and Delusional Optimism that counts on luck to deliver an outsize return.