How is the Iran War is Affecting Real Estate
The following are my 3 observations from the 181 transactions I’m currently in the middle of closing.Â
- Investor activity is increasing
- Interest rates are trending higher, again.
- Business as usual
Investor activity is increasing – Anytime the stock market drops in value 10% or more, we see many investors who haven’t bought in a while back in the market. There is something wonderful about the slower, yet more predictable and often much larger paydays we enjoy in real estate when compared to the stock market.
While activity is up, I don’t see this being a level of activity that is pushing prices up the way we saw in Covid.
Interest rates are trending higher, again. War usually causes inflation as demand for oil to fuel a war causes prices to rise. This war is actually damaging many of the oil producing infrastructure which will take years to rebuild-once the conflict ceases. Additionally, the Strait of Hormuz being choked by Iran is driving up the price of oil
When oil costs more, that cost is passed along to the consumer. You’ve probably noticed the higher gas prices already. Higher prices make it difficult, if not impossible for the Fed to lower rates.
The Silver Lining – Since rates are not dropping, and might even increase, we are seeing buyer activity in a bit of a rush to lock in their deals under current rates-hoping to refi after things settle down.
Business as Usual – Rates skyrocketed back in 2022 and it seemed like the end of the world. Transaction volume has dramatically slowed, but most have found a way to continue operating their business under the new conditions.
This feels like business as usual. For us, here at Diamond Equity, business as usually has meant figuring out how to make deals happen no matter what conditions exist. We will not “sit out the market” and wait for lower rates, better deals, or the end of the war.
Every morning in Africa both a gazelle & lion will awake. Each has the challenge to outrun each other. The lion must win, or it will starve to death. The gazelle must win, or it will be eaten. The lesson? Wake & up run as though your life depends on it. This is business as usual no matter what geopolitical or economic conditions may exist.
Currently Owned, and Buying throughout the US:
- Value Add Deals, Ideally occupied with below market rents
- Industrial & Commercial Property, 10K sq. ft. – 250K sq. ft.
- Mobile Home Communities (50 pad minimum)
- Well located Retail Development Sites
- Residential MFR & SFR
If you’re selling a property that could use some “value add”, reply to this email with details including the address, size, price, & photos, if available, and we can get the ball rolling.