I’ll be in Orlando Jan 31-Feb 2 at this Commercial Academy Mastermind Event. Want to meet me there?
Here’s Why I Attend:
- Network: There are more than 100 Commercial Real Estate investors attending-most seek JV Partners who can bring them deals.
- Knowledge: There will be 9 presentations of recent & active projects. There is no other place to get this level of “behind the scenes” details-most CRE investors are highly secretive and NEVER share any of their strategy. I may be one of the 9, I’ll keep you posted.
- Deal Flow: I own a shopping center, several storage facilities, 2 mobile home parks, and some flex industrial – all deals which discovered at these events.
- Orlando, FL: I love the warm weather this time of year in Florida!!
Here’s today’s agenda:
- For Sale – 33 Real Estate Investor Deals
- For Sale – 3 Warehouse Deals
- Self Storage Investment – 22%-30% IRR Target
- Meet me in Orlando on Jan 31?
- A Major Blind Spot in (CRE)Commercial Real Estate Underwriting
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Doing a Deal with Diamond Equity
Quick shout out to Rick Panlilio & Stacie Kidwell Sandoval for referring a few deals over this week. APPRECIATE YOU BOTH!
Here’s What I’m Buying:
- Small Bay Industrial 20K sq. ft+
- Industrial or Flex Warehouse 20,000 – 250,000 Sq. Ft.
- Industrial 8,500 Sq. Ft+ on 3+ Acres
- Retail Strip or Shopping Center 10,000-250,000 Sq. Ft.
- Prefer value-add: either low rents OR vacancy, or both
- Prefer that you either Own, or are Direct to the Owner
Allocation Closing this Friday, January 24, 2025
Last chance to invest in this Self Storage Deal. If you’d like to invest, or review the investment presentation you can reply to this email or Schedule a Call
A Major Blind Spot in CRE Underwriting
Underwriting commercial real estate deals is where the money is made or lost. Underwriting is deciding the price and/or terms you are willing to pay for the risks involved in buying/owning the property. Honestly, I prefer “napkin” underwriting, where I am scribbling the current rents, current expenses, potential rents, capital improvements, etc. on a scrap of paper already full of other notes inhabiting my desk.
Honestly, my desk is always cluttered with 6-12 sheets of notes from my interactions on the phone/zoom daily. I ALWAYS take notes on EVERY call I schedule, no matter the other parties skill level, wealth level, or even my own expectations from that meeting. And I’m always surprised to glean a jewel of wisdom from EVERY call/meeting I join.
This week, with one of my partners in our Commercial Brokerage, Henry Eisenstein, we underwrote two deals live, on video. We will both publish these in a few weeks on our YouTube channels. The Major Blind Spot we highlighted on these examples was the insurance cost. These costs have gone WAY up & that’s assuming you can even find an insurer to “buy” the risk (meaning write the policy)
Insurance Cost is a MAJOR Risk in the Future Profitablity of CRE
When I bought my first 3 large apartment buildings, I didn’t even pay attention to that line item for insurance. I simply moved ahead with the deal and got lucky-that I was able to find insurance for the same cost, or less, than the Seller was paying. I underwrote the deal using the insurance costs provided by the seller and believed them.
Now, many sellers have older policies with lower insured amounts. Once you buy at the new, much higher value, you’ll also be wise to buy insurance at that higher amount. This costs more. Not only that, many of the commercial sellers in today’s marketplace DO NOT EVEN CARRY INSURANCE!! In fact, this IS THE REASON THEY’RE SELLING NOW.
To be clear, now is NOT the best time to sell commercial real estate because the interest rates are so high. If the rates were to drop, more deals will close at slightly better prices. However, if a seller owns a $2M-$10M property with NO insurance, perhaps NOW IS THE BEST TIME TO SELL.
Why do these Sellers Have NO INSURANCE?
Right now, on the heels of inflation, hurricanes, & wildfires, insurers are paying out large claims. In the process of evaluating the risk they hold (policies they wrote, which they may have to payout), they are either dramatically raising insurance rates (I’ve seen 150%-300% increases issued to renew) OR simply dropping the property altogether, leaving the owner with no option but to go uninsured. Terrible situation for that seller.
I’ve also seen a deal where the Seller made a $500K claim for wind damage and was dropped the following year. I offered $8M on the deal, he wanted $11M. I may have paid more, but when I called my insurance broker to quote the policy, we could not find a single company willing to issue the policy at a price that would make the deal work.
The Insurance Cost is Deducted from Your NOI, Reducing the Value of Your Property
The cost of insurance is an expense, which reduces your NOI & ultimately the actual value of your property. For example, if you’re using an 8% cap rate to value your deal and your insurance cost is $35,000/year HIGHER than you expected, or paid the prior year, that reduces your value by $437,500. If this happens again next year, and the year after that, you might be $1.3M less valuable than you projected. I don’t know about you, but I’m not excited by losing $1.3M in value…
KEY TAKEAWAY: If you’re buying a commercial property, ask for the “loss run history” for the property as part of your DD package. This shows all the claims made. If there are recent claims, you may have trouble finding insurance at all, and certainly not at reasonable rates.
ANOTHER KEY TAKEAWAY: ALWAYS shop your insurance very early in the contract cycle. Confirm your insurance cost assumptions before your DD expires. Your deal may not actually be a deal you should close on…